Every year, early January is typically accompanied by a slowdown in freight transportation activity. For the logistics industry, this is a familiar pattern. However, in recent years, market participants have increasingly questioned whether the current decline in volumes is driven by normal seasonality or whether it signals the onset of a broader market slowdown or stagnation.
Seasonal factor: a traditional slowdown at the beginning of the year
From a global logistics perspective, January is traditionally considered a weak month. This is largely due to the end of peak pre-holiday demand and a temporary reduction in production activity among major trading companies. The effect is particularly visible in Asia: during the Chinese New Year period, many factories suspend or scale back operations, which directly impacts freight volumes.
At the beginning of the year, a decline is typically observed in the number of container shipments and rail services moving from China to Europe. Such fluctuations are characteristic of the transition from high season to low season and, on their own, do not indicate a crisis.
Deeper causes: cooling demand
Analysts note that last year’s decline in freight volumes was not limited to January alone. By the end of the first half of the year, several transport corridors showed a sustained reduction in rail shipments and container traffic. Key contributing factors include slower economic growth, weakening consumer demand, high logistics costs, and subdued investment activity.
This suggests that the current situation reflects a combination of seasonal slowdown and broader market cooling that goes beyond the typical January dip.
The Baltic States: structural change rather than a temporary decline
The situation in the Baltic States — Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia — is particularly illustrative. According to Eurostat, in 2023–2024 Estonia and Latvia recorded some of the sharpest declines in rail freight volumes in the EU, measured in tonne-kilometres. A significant factor behind this trend has been the reduction in transit cargo flows from Russia.
While Baltic ports retain export potential and continue to invest in infrastructure, growth has been observed only in selected segments, such as containerized cargo. It is still premature to speak of a broad market recovery.
The large-scale Rail Baltica infrastructure project is widely viewed as a long-term growth driver capable of integrating the region into the European rail network. However, its tangible impact on freight flows is not expected before the end of the decade.
Latvia: key figures
Historical data confirms that the decline is not seasonal:
- In 2023, rail freight volumes in Latvia fell by 27.5% year-on-year, to 15.4 million tonnes.
- International shipments dropped by nearly 30%, while transit volumes declined by 59%.
- In 2024, total freight volumes across all modes of transport decreased by a further 7.1%.
- In the first quarter of 2025, rail freight volumes declined again by approximately 28% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Lithuania: key figures
- In 2022, rail freight volumes decreased by approximately 39.4% compared to 2021 (to around 31 million tonnes across all modes), representing a significant contraction in both domestic and transit traffic.
- In 2023, international rail freight volumes declined by about 26.5%, largely due to restrictions on trade with Belarus.
- In 2024, total freight volumes across all transport modes increased, but the rail segment contracted by approximately 5.8% year-on-year, to around 25.7 million tonnes, reflecting the continued decline of rail’s share in the country’s logistics structure.
- Full-year rail data for 2025 is not yet available; however, reduced transit flows suggest a continuation of the downward trend in rail freight turnover along key corridors.
Estonia: key figures
- In 2023, rail freight volumes fell by approximately 43%, to around 10.1 million tonnes, driven primarily by a sharp reduction in transit traffic.
- Rail freight turnover in tonne-kilometres also declined significantly, to approximately 766.3 million tkm, indicating not only lower volumes but also shorter average haul distances.
- In 2025, declines of up to 46% were recorded in certain periods, continuing a multi-year downward trend, partly due to sanctions and the cessation of transit flows.
Overall, the Baltic region is experiencing a sustained decline in rail freight, reflecting a structural reconfiguration of logistics flows. Rail transport volumes continue to contract, largely due to geopolitical shifts and sanctions. The decline has been most severe in Estonia, while Lithuania has seen a more gradual reduction, and Latvia has been particularly affected by the collapse of transit and international traffic.
Central Asia: growth instead of crisis
The situation in Central Asia presents a contrasting picture. Several countries in the region have recorded growth in freight volumes, particularly on export-oriented routes.
In Kyrgyzstan, freight volumes increased by 10.6% in 2025, surpassing 10 million tonnes for the first time — a national record. In Kazakhstan, total rail freight volumes rose to 319.9 million tonnes (+5.5% in 2024), with grain shipments increasing by more than 30%.
In Uzbekistan, rail freight volumes declined by 6% in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower imports. However, by the end of 2024, total freight volumes across all modes reached a record 1.521 billion tonnes, driven primarily by road transport. Similar growth trends were observed in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan between 2023 and 2025.
Overall, the region shows no signs of a systemic crisis; fluctuations remain localized and sector-specific.
Regional comparison
| Region | Freight trend | Key segments |
| Baltic States | Sustained year-on-year decline | Rail freight, international transit |
| Kazakhstan | Growing freight turnover | Exports, grain, rail transport |
| Kyrgyzstan | Rapid growth after stagnation | Rail freight |
| Uzbekistan | Overall growth with periodic downturns | High share of road transport |
What recovery scenarios do experts foresee?
Experts agree that freight transportation closely reflects overall economic conditions. When industrial activity and demand slow, transport markets inevitably follow. However, most analysts do not view the current situation as irreversible.
Market recovery is expected to be driven by:
- a rebound in industrial production;
- the start of active agricultural seasons;
- lower interest rates;
- renewed growth in global trade.
In Eastern Europe and Asia, many analysts anticipate a gradual recovery in freight volumes during the second half of 2026.
What does this mean for the freight market in 2026?
For the Baltic region, the decline in freight volumes is only partly seasonal. Long-term structural changes, reduced transit flows, and the reconfiguration of logistics routes play a decisive role.
For Central Asia, it is premature to speak of a crisis: in most countries, freight volumes are growing or remaining stable despite short-term fluctuations.
For the market as a whole, early-year seasonality remains a factor, but since 2025 there have been clear signs of cooling, particularly in container logistics and rail freight segments.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Baltic region is likely to continue adapting to a new logistics reality with a reduced role for rail transit. At the same time, Central Asia retains strong growth potential, driven by exports, agricultural cargo, and the development of international transport corridors.
In this context, the current downturn should be seen not as a systemic crisis, but as a combination of seasonal fluctuations and deeper structural transformations that manifest differently across regions.
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